What to watch
- Whether the MPC follows October's hike with another one or pauses. October's resolution said policy action ahead "can only be a rate hike or a pause", so a cut is not on the table.
- Inflation against RBI's own path: it projects CPI inflation at 6.0% for October–December and 5.7% for January–March. The monthly CPI releases before the meeting show whether prices are tracking above or below that.
- Growth: RBI raised its 2026-27 GDP forecast to 7.1%. The July–September GDP estimate, usually released at the end of November, is the last growth reading before the meeting.
- The stance vote: in October, two of the six members preferred to keep the stance neutral. A wider split would weaken the tightening signal; a unanimous vote would strengthen it.
- Any liquidity measures announced with the decision, which affect short-term rates and liquid and money market funds.
RBI's latest forecasts
From the October 2026 policy statement.
| Forecast | Now | Previous meeting | By quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation, 2026-27 | 5.2% | – | Q2 4.9% · Q3 6.0% · Q4 5.7% |
| Real GDP growth, 2026-27 | 7.1% | – | Q2 7.2% · Q3 6.9% · Q4 6.8% |
Recent decisions
| Meeting | Repo rate | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| 6–8 April 2026 | 5.25% | Neutral |
| 3–5 June 2026 | 5.25% | Neutral |
| 3–5 August 2026 | 5.25% | Neutral |
| 5–7 October 2026 | 5.50% | Calibrated tightening |
Next meeting: 3–5 February 2027, decision on 5 February 2027.
Sources
- RBI: Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee, 5–7 October 2026
- All RBI policy meetings in 2026-27
This page is educational research based on public RBI statements and AMFI data. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or fund, or personalised investment advice. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, enlistment with IAASB and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.